Season 4: Episode 9

Hard Facts

1. The Doctor from the Barge washes up dead on the Island; his throat has been slit.

2. The mercenaries enter the Others’ compound with guns blazing and an otherwise impressive show of force.

3. Alex is executed by the Barge mercenaries after Ben refuses their ransom demands.

4. The mercenaries seek the capture, rather than the death, of Ben.

5. Ben declares that Alex’s execution has “changed the rules.”

6. Ben retreats into a safe room, after which the black smoke monster attacks the Barge mercenaries.

7. Faraday admits that the Barge does not intend to rescue the survivors from the Island.

8. Ben wearing a DAHRMA parka appearing in the Tunisian portion of the Sahara desert on or about October 21, 2005.

9. Ben is a preferred guest at a Tunisian hotel under the alias of Dean Moriarty.

10. Nadia, who at the time is married to Sayyid, is murdered in Los Angeles.

11. Nadia’s funeral takes place in Tikrit, Iraq.

12. Ben informs Sayyid of the identity of Nadia’s murderer, Ishmael Bakhiar, and that Bahiar was working for Charles Widmore.

13. Sayyid shoots Bakhiar dead.

14. Ben and Widmore know each other well and Widmore pointedly states “"I know who you are and what you are boy.” (Emphasis added).

Analysis

1. The conflict between Ben and Widmore is a longstanding one. It has to have been going on for a long time because, at least in Ben’s mind, there are rules which govern the conflict. Also, Ben’s flash forward meeting with Widmore demonstrates that the two protagonists are very familiar with each other.

2. The portal mechanism from the Island is inexact. Ben emerges in the Tunisian desert wearing a parka more suitable for winter weather. He also needs to clarify with the hotel’s clerk that it is, in fact, 2005. This indicates that sometimes the portal can malfunction both as to location and time. (After all, even Bill and Ted’s magic telephone booth was not perfect in dialing up years.) Alternatively, though not necessarily inconsistent, there could be something about the portal mechanism that requires wearing warm gear which would also help explain the use of polar bears as animals for experiments in transporting.

3. The survivors do not utilize the portal mechanism to return to civilization. Ben tells Sayyid that Ben used a boat to get off he Island. If the portal mechanism was an item familiar to the survivors through their having used it to get off the Island, Ben would not have felt the need to lie to Sayyid. Therefore, by process of elimination at this point, the Barge is likely the means by which the survivors return to civilization.

4. The smoke monster is an Island security system over which Ben knows how to exercise at least some control. The smoke monster appears to have killed at least one of the mercenaries. That’s what a security system does: defend the property from intruders. However, that also begs the question as to why the smoke monster has been absent recently especially when the Island is under fear of attack from the Barge. The answer may be that the smoke monster has always been there but that its attention was directed more skywards towards assistance in preventing the Barge from successfully landing on the Island. For example, on the flight back to the Barge, the helicopter encounters a dark cloud. That dark cloud may very well be a diffuse version of the black smoke monster. Similarly, we have been shown scenes of extreme turbulence the helicopter encountered when it first attempted to land on the Island.

5. The mercenaries were not eradicated by the smoke monster. The mercenaries have a large base of knowledge concerning all aspects of th Island. We have already have been shown maps of the Island and know that the Tempest contains chemicals which could be used to poison the Island. Given that level of intimate knowledge of the Island, it is likely that they are aware of the existence of the smoke monster and have some way of coping with it appropriately. Therefore, I do not believe the mercenaries were eradicated by the smoke monster but, instead, they were only pushed back from their attack position.

6. The Barge fails to complete its mission successfully. Otherwise Ben would not chide Widmore for not knowing the location of the Island. Also, Ben clearly has not been taken captive and the mercenaries appear to have been repelled by the black smoke monster.

7. Ben and Sayyid, like Michael and Jack, cannot be killed upon leaving the Island. Ben enters Tikrit, Iraq in October 2005 fearlessly. As we know from unfortunate events occurring around that time, the odds of a non-Arab surviving in Tikrit without being the target of an assassination attempt were not high. Similarly, this would explain Ben’s desire to recruit Sayyid as an assassin; he cannot be killed. Earlier in the season in the Economist episode, we saw Sayyid take a bullet to the chest and walk away with just a flesh wound. It may also explain why Ben tells Widmore that he is not in his bedroom to kill him as Widmore may previously been to the Island and obtained its powers of immunization against death.

8. There may be more than two competing groups seeking control of, or who are involved with, the Island. Hurley, Sawyer and Ben playing Risk may be symbolic of the struggle taking place over the Island. Sawyer mentions that Ben is trying to play Hurley and Sawyer off each other. Risk, like the fight for control of the Island, has rules. Also, DHARMA continues to make food drops on the Island yet Widmore does not know the Island’s location.

9. Sawyer is a moron. He pounds on a stone wall as though that will bring it down. Then, after Ben has push backed the mercenaries by conjuring up the smoke monster on the mercenaries, Sawyer threatens him at gunpoint to release Hurley to go to the beach. This walk to the beach, by the way, is taking place at night while the smoke monster is still active and there are likely still some mercenaries active.