Season 4: Episode 2 -- CONFIRMED DEAD

Some New Hard Facts

1. A decoy Flight 815 is discovered in an oceanic trough off the Indonesian coast;

2. Flight 815 is an obsession of Charlotte;

3. Charlotte is an anthropologist and has no military training;

4. The purported discovery of the remains of Flight 815 on the ocean floor causes Dan to cry;

5. Dan is a physicist and has no military training

6. Miles while he is in ordinary civilization can communicate with the dead with the aid of some machine;

7. Miles, on the Island, can communicate with the dead without the need for any machine;

8. Abaddon initially believes that there were no Flight 815 survivors;

9. The discovery of crashed Flight 815 on the ocean floor is the precipitating factor in the Barge setting sail for the Island; and

Previous Questions Answered

1. Abaddon is affiliated with the Barge. He is an opponent of the Others on the Island. Also, his mission in the flash forward is directly opposed to that of dead Charlie.

2. Oceanic Airlines is not a mere bystander in this whole affair. It is most likely that Oceanic is under the control of the Island since the staging of the crashed Flight 815 on the ocean floor seems to have been for the benefit of the Island and the level of detail implies Oceanic’s active cooperation.

New Observations/Theories

1. The Barge Had Agents on Flight 815. Flight 815 was supposed to (i.e.,
pre-destined or otherwise planned) to have crashed or landed on the Island. The Pilot was not so much lost as he was looking for the Island with a specific mission from Abaddon. This would explain the switching of pilots, the otherwise mysterious failure of communication with Flight 815 and the Black Smoke Monster claiming the Pilot as its first victim.

The Pilot’s attempted use of the transceiver was the first effort to communicate the location of the Island. The Pilot was the one person who best knew the flight course and the approximate location of the Island. The Black Smoke Monster acted quickly to protect the Island by immediately killing the Pilot. The transceiver in someone else’s hands is likely not as dangerous. It is also quite possible that there are features of the device that Sayyid simply does not know how to use and, in any event, no one could be quite as knowledgeable as the Pilot as to the general location of the Island.

I believe that the Pilot was not the sole representative of the Barge on Flight 815. I believe that Nathan may have been another such agent. His venturing into the jungle was mysterious and he was ultimately killed by Goodwin, one of the Others. I believe that Goodwin did not need to kill Nathan to protect himself but, instead, committed that act to protect the Island. The sole flashback concerning Nathan was one in which he was a bit player in Sawyer’s arrest in Australia. Otherwise we know nothing about Nathan.

Libby is another good candidate to have been an agent of the Barge. There have been no flashbacks specifically devoted to her and even her last name is not yet even known. Libby gave Desmond the boat that wound up being marooned on the Island and seems to have stalked Hurley both in the mental hospital and on the Island.

I attribute Dan crying to his personal relationship with a person he knew to be on Flight 815 which based upon the wreckage footage he now believed to be dead. I would not be surprised if he was crying for Libby. I know at the time he said he did not why he was crying. However,my sense is that he just didn't want to say the reason.

Similarly, Charlotte’s excessive interest in the survivors also lends credence to this theory. Rather than seeking a head count so as to eliminate the survivors, Charlotte is equally likely interested in knowing whether her fellow agents among the survivors.

The presence of Barge agents among the Tailies could also suggest why the Tailies came under almost immediate assault from the Others. No such initial raids were launched against the survivors on the beach and this is one possible explanation for the disparity in the treatment of he two separate groups of survivors was a recognition on the part of the Others that the Barge agents among the Tailies posed a more serious threat to them.

2. The Island’s Electro-Magnetic Features Allow for Communication With Those we Perceive to be Dead. I believe that the device used by Miles is eliminating the poltergeist from the grandmother’s house was one employing some sort of electro-magnetic field. On the Island, Miles can communicate with dead Naomi without the aid of that device because the Island self generates the same type of electro-magnetic field.

3. The Barge Knows That Desmond is on the Island. Naomi is carrying Desmond’s picture and he arrived on the Island courtesy of the boat Libby gave him. The boat may very well have been rigged to wash up on the Island. Desmond may be an unwitting agent of the Barge on the Island who is expected to be called into service by Penny or Widmore or other entities working in association with Widmore. After all, even though Naomi is carrying Desmond’s photo, he is still not the object of the mission.

New Questions Raised or old Questions Which Remain Unanswered

What are the remains of a dead polar bear doing with a DHARMA buckle from the Hydra Station in the middle of the Tunisian desert? I find this the most perplexing piece of information I have been confronted with by LOST. Some might say that it is indicative of time travel experiments having been performed on or in connection with the Island or by DHARMA. In that scenario, the Island's properties probably give it some unique abilities to engage in such time travel akin to its abilities to project people around the world. I am not fond of this theory because time travel would so complicate the LOST story as to make it incomprehensible. Then again........

A second alternative, and one which I personally find more reasonable than time travel, is that the Island has the ability to project people and things around the world sans time travel. There has been some evidence of that in Others showing up unexplained in weird places.

Finally, it may suggest that DHARMA has been around for a very long time and playing with polar bears in the vicinity of other electro-magnetic anomalies on Earth is just one of the things they do as part of their cultic practices or scientific analysis. Charlotte being an anthropologist as the one who “discovers” these remains lends some credence to the cultic theory.

Where did the Barge get Ben’s picture from? Since we are told that Ben has not been off the Island since his arrival (which may of course be a lie), this suggest that the Barge has had agents on the Island who identified Ben as a person of significance and somehow communicated that picture back to the Barge. The exact identity of that person and the method of communication still remain a mystery. Perhaps there is a traitor in the midst of the Others. Also, the picture appears to have been taken many years ago, a fact which may have some significance.

Who is Ben’s mole on the Barge? Some may believe that it is Michael. However, that is unrealistic since Michael has no known way of communicating with the Island nor does he have any reason to assist Ben after leaving the Island that we have been told about yet. It is more likely that Walt is that man and is using his telekinetic powers to communicate with the Island. LOST has already indicated that Walt feels the need to protect the Island as in the time he urged Locke, after he had been shot by Ben, to come to the Island's aid. Another possibility is that it is one of the Others (who are apparently able to project themselves all over the World). The Island knows that the Barge's organization (whoever that may be) is out to harm its interest and it plants people throughout that organization in order to monitor thwart its plans much like countries do when they are at war or in a state of hostilities.

Who is Behind the Barge? Someone with alot of money. Naomi's use of the word "covert" in referring to the operation could indicate that it is a governmental or quasi-governmental organization. However, I think that is unlikely in the context of LOST. However, the operation being covert could refer to the operation being secret from interests otherwise aligned with the Barge. For example, Widmore or whichever other entity is behind the Barge may be partners or joint venturers with similar large and well-funded organizations having an interest in the Island and wish to keep the action secret from those joint venturers. Naomi holding Desmond's picture indicates an affiliation with Widmore though alternatively a joint venturer of Widmore might also be aware of his presence on the Island. That Penny has indicated to Charlie that she does not know about the Barge is not conclusive of Widmore's involvement because it is possible given the covert nature of the operation that she was not informed of its being undertaken.

Is there any significance to Dan's observation that light on the Island does not seem to scatter naturally? Maybe. The unequal scattering of light may stem from the electro-magnetic oddities of the Island and maybe its related to the reason why the Island is not ordinarily visible. I'm not a physicist so this one is especially hard for me.

Why did the Barge bring gas masks ? It could be as a defensive precaution. Or, it could be to insulate themselves against an attack involving the use of gas. Either way, Dan was not in charge of packing which, by the way, is quite a lame excuse.