Season 4: Episode 3 --- The Economist

This weeks episode proceeds on two tracks: (1) events taking place in the "present" (i.e., at the time of the Barge helicopter has landed on the Island; and (2) in the future courtesy of a series of flash forwards devoted to Sayyid. Both the present events and the flash forward help answer certain previously unresolved questions raised on LOST but, frustratingly, the flash forward events in particular raise more questions than they answer.

New Hard Facts
1. Ben has many passports, foreign currency and quite a large wardrobe suitable for off Island purposes.
2. Sayyid is one of the "Oceanic Six."
3. Sayyid after leaving the Island works as an assassin for Benjamin Linus (or some organization in which Linus is a senior official) targeting people off a list provided by Linus.
4. Sayyid kills a man on a golf course who reacts nervously to being told that Sayyid is one of the Oceanic Six.
5. The payback experiment by Dan demonstrates that the outside world’s perception of the timing of events on the Island is inconsistent with when those events actually occur on the Island.
6. A senior official of the Barge lives in Berlin.
7. When Sayyid followed his heart his friends died.
8. Kate becomes something of a celebrity upon her return to civilization.

Observations/theories from watching this episode

1. There is a strong suggestion but no conclusive evidence that time moves
differently on the Island and, even if it does, that is a recent phenomenon. The payload experiment conducted by Dan and Regina strongly suggests that time moves differently on the Island than in the outside world. However, Alexandra Rosseau appears to be the relatively correct chronological age based upon other facts we have been told about her. This could mean that the time discrepancy developed after the Swan hatch explosion or that there is no such material discrepancy.

2. Evidence mounts that the Barge is likely affiliated with DHARMA. DHARMA knows the location of the Island from its prior experience there and its food drops even after the time the survivors landed. To the extent one would argue that DHARMA would not have to perform the payback experiment to gain an understanding of the Island’s properties, an easy response is that the Island’s properties may have changed since DHARMA was purged from the Island and particularly since the explosion at the Swan station.
Also, I note that the DHARMA food drops are consistent with this hypothesis and my earlier theory that Flight 815 was intended to land/crash on the Island,. There were not 16 years of food drop – at least not that we saw. Instead, the drops started after the crash. This evidences that DHARMA knew the location of the Island and started the drops after the crash. Those drops also unexplainedly stop which could coincide with the reports of Flight 815 being found on the ocean floor which would mean failure in its mission of reaching the Island. Nor is it like the Others were depending on these drops because they made no effort to retrieve their contents.
This would also explain, in part Naomi’s conversation with Abaddon in which he stated that there were no survivors of Flight 815. The Barge (which I am assuming for these purposes is DHARMA) set sail precisely because the believed there were no survivors with its mission of planting agents on the Island failing with the seeming crash of Flight 815 into the ocean.

3. The survivors following Locke are more worried about returning to
civilization than they are about the intentions of the Barge. The initial suggestion, as articulated by Hurley, is that they feared the people on the Barge. Howevet, all the know so far is that the Others have attempted to subjegate them and that the Others fear the Barge. If the enemy of my enemy is my friend then the barge is obviously a favorable development for the surviors. Therefore, the more cogent explanation is explicitly revealed by Sawyer’s confession to Kate that he has no reason to return to civilization. They are scared about encountering the outside world as it exists off the Island. They have grown comfortable with their existence on the Island especially without the threat from the Others, of whom ten were killed off at the end of season 3. At some level, this seems odd given the efforts the survivors have previously invested in attempting to be rescued. However, it is often he case that there is disappointment when reality (actually being rescued) confronts theory ( the hope of being rescued).

4. The struggle for the Island is part of a larger struggle between the Barge and
the Others/Hostiles. The off-Island activities of both DHARMA/Barge and the Hostiles appear rather extensive. It appears that the Barge is better financed with the Hostiles relying on Sayyid as their henchman in chief.

New Questions

1. Where are all the Others?
There is a suggestion that many are at the Temple (whatever and wherever that happens to be). However, ten have been killed in their unsuccessful raid on the survivors; Juliet is wandering with Jack; Carl, Alexandra and Ben are with Locke or in his custody; Bea Klugh was shot by Mikhail (which means nothing on LOST) and Mikhail took a harpoon through his chest (which I’ve already observed means nothing). However, there just aren’t that many Others and they’ve undergone pretty heavy attrition since the survivors landed (think also of Goodwin and Ethan). They also may not that much ammo left after the failed assault on the beach. Therefore, however many Others are left are effectively in hiding.
2. Why is the Barge interested in Ben?
It is likely that they know about the Purge and are after him because of that. It is also possible that they know of him from off-Island activities.
3. Who was Ben referring to that Sayyid had followed his heart for?
When LOST left us Sayyid was on the way to the Barge via the helicopter. I will, therefore, assume that the helicopter does, in fact, make it back to the Barge. It is likely, though not entirely certain, that Sayyid does not return to the Island except at the Barge’s discretion and that he either forms or has a relationship with someone on or associated with the Barge. The key candidates right now are the woman Regina who has recently surfaced in LOST and is on the Barge and Charlotte. That woman could also be a person on the Barge we have yet to meet.
There is also an outside shot that it is Nadia, his childhood sweetheart, with respect to whom we’ve previously been informed is living in the LA area, a base of operations for the Barge. A lot of time has been devoted to Nadia so far and it is the nature of LOST to unexpectedly tie in events and people in unexpected ways.
4. Who are the friends of Sayyid that suffered from his following his heart?
It appears likely some of the other survivors. One would assume that such suffering took place on the Island in connection with the rescue. After his experience of following his heart turned out badly Sayyid became co-opted by Linus.
5. Does Frank make it back to the Barge on this flight ?
Almost certainly. Sayyid is quite a capable fellow but swimming miles to safety after a helicopter crash in the ocean seems even beyond the realm of his Republican Guard training.
6. Why is the Barge not getting in closer to the Island ?
Either: (1) the water is too shallow, (2) the Barge is afraid of getting too close because of dangers it associates with being too close to the Island, or (3) there has not yet been enough time to do so. In this regard, it may very well be that the expedition Rosseau arrived on was affiliated with the Barge and was sent to reinforce or assist DHARMA.
7. Did Jacob’s shack really move?
Yes, the cabin moved from where Locke believed it had been. The logical inference is that it actually did move. However, the cabin may be some sort of apparition making the concept of moving not relevant. To the extent the shack moved, we do not know how it performed that act. However, items can be moved and its not like the shack was connected to a deep foundation. After all, its just a shack.
Nor would this be the first time the shack moved. We saw it move before when Hurley spotted it during his lone walk in the jungle. Any such movement may have something to do with the electro-magnetic properties if the Island or with the nature of the xhack.
Nor do we know why the shack moved. One explanation is that Jacob doesn’t want to be visited by Locke though, on the other hand, Jacob has many other ways of getting rid of people with whom he does not wish to speak.
8. Who is the Economist and why does Ben want him dead?
He -- and Ilse said it was a man -- has an agenda in opposition to that of the Island. Ilse’s wearing a bracelet similar to that worn by Naomi suggests strongly that he is a high up official within or affiliated with the Barge.
One issue is why LOST chose Berlin as the Economist’s location. Cities like Paris and England are more cosmopolitan. The Economist, therefore, is likely German. I am not sure whether to attach any significance to this fact. However, I do note that the old inmate in the mental asylum that Hurley visited and from whom he received the winning numbers (4-8-15-16-23-42) said that he heard them in a radio transmission during WWII. And, as we know Germany was a combatant on the wrong and particularly evil side of WWII.
I also note that the name Mittlewerk, which is the name of a person associated with the Hanso Foundation according to Lostpedia, is also the name of a slave labor facility/concentration camp used by the Nazi’s during WWII to manufacture the V-2 rockets. See http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sputnik/vonbraun.html
In the event the use of the name Mittlewerk is intended to invoke that hideous piece of history, this whole LOST thing is being tied into the Nazis though it would seem odd for Nazis to hire a black man like Abaddon. And, if that is where this is really going it would really a bit over the top in my opinion.
9. What’s the deal with Desmond ?
The Barge not only has a stand alone picture of Desmond, it also has a picture of him with
Penny Widmore. Desmond is on his way back to the Barge to find answers and I don’t think those answers are going to make him happy.